Bucky Fuller in 10 years: A Review of Critical Path
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10 years to stop climate change disaster. That's what James Hansen says, and he should know. The NASA climatologist has been studying climate change since the 1970's, and he's already seen his predictions coming true.
If you listen to James Lovelock, another prominent scientist, we've already passed the point of no return, and within 50 years the few tattered remnants of humanity will be sailing around the seas that used to be the north polar ice cap.
Others say that technology will solve all our problems, and environmentalist hand wringing will only slow the inevitable technological paradise on earth.
Buckminster Fuller, writing in 1970 (Utopia or Oblivion), said that the world would witness a revolution in education, and in by 1980 the traditional classroom would be a thing of the past. In 1980 (Critical Path), he predicted that the world would have to undergo fundamental change by 1990 or humanity would face extinction by 2000.
Who do we listen to?
First, a few words about climate predictions. When James Hansen says that we have ten years to take action, he doesn't mean that we will all be dead in 10 years if we don't. Rather, he means that climate related catastrophes will increase, year by year, until we face disaster.
CO2 emissions have increased every year at a predictable rate. Looking at past growth rates of emissions, if we assume business as usual, we can calculate with reasonable certainty how much CO2 we will be emitting annually by 2016, and how much CO2 we will have pumped into the atmosphere between 2006 and 2016.
We can also calculate what effect that increased CO2 will have on the climate. These calculations are already good enough for government work - we know that temperature has increased and will continue to increase as we put more CO2 into the air. These predictions will become increasingly accurate as we get more data from ice cores, tree rings, ocean sediment, and other temperature records.
There's one more thing to consider, however: feedbacks. As we look back through historical temperature reconstructions, over the past couple million years, we see that CO2 has lagged behind rising temperatures. That is, temperature rises for one reason or another (increases in the Sun's brightness, perhaps, or variations in the earth's orbit) and shortly thereafter, CO2 levels begin to rise. It seems likely that higher temperatures activate processes that release more CO2 into the atmosphere. A prime example would be rotting vegetation in formerly frozen areas like Siberia. Suddenly, all the CO2 and methane and other gases that were frozen in place will flood the atmosphere, and the greenhouse effect will intensify. Another example is methane bubbling up from the ocean floor - trapped at certain temperatures, it is released when the temperature rises. I've talked about it before, so I imagine you have the idea.
The question is, where are we on that feedback curve? There is a point at which nothing we do will stop climate change. Once we pass that point, even if we switch entirely to clean technology, we will not be able to stop methane bubbling up from the ocean floor, or arctic ice melting. (Or maybe we will be... perhaps giant orbiting sun shades could refreeze the permafrost, or clouds of sulfur could darken the skies enough to drop the temperature and cool the oceans. I don't know.)
Lovelock believes we are past the point of no return. Hansen believes we are almost there. The guys (Competitive Enterprise Institute, Tim Ball, High Park Group, Richard Lindzen) who tell you there's nothing to worry about... well, they're remarkably optimistic (as well as on the payroll of ExxonMobile).
But what about Bucky Fuller?
Despite the missed predictions I cited above (although perhaps the second one is merely a few years off), R. Buckminster Fuller has a lot to offer our society.
For more than fifty years, Fuller dedicated himself entirely to the betterment of all humanity. He might be best known as the man who coined the term "spaceship earth," or perhaps as the inventor of the geodesic dome.
Fuller determined, and stated repeatedly, that there is enough wealth on the planet to sustain all humans at the level of billionaires. He was a prolific schemer and inventor, and developed plans by which all humanity would have power, modern plumbing, shelter, and abundant food. He believed it was possible to give every human (4 billion at the time he wrote Critical Path) 400,000 dollars daily to use as they wished. He believed (and it's only logical) that if all humans had their rightful share of the earth's wealth, there would be no more war and crime. Humans would, instead of struggling to survive, do the things they loved and were best at, and this would free the tremendous creative potential of all humanity.
In Critical Path, Fuller offers a history of humanity up to the present day. In fact, Critical Path is a lot like The Great Turning. There's an explanation of human history (some of it's a little out there) and an explanation of what went wrong. Whatever quibbles I might have with his speculative prehistory (his ideas about human evolution, for example), his history of the twentieth century is highly illuminating. He was born in 1895 and was a US naval officer during World War I, so he was well placed to comment on US history during the whole twentieth century.
Fuller also offers a solution to the problems of humanity - a "design science revolution." Sadly, his biggest ideas never came to fruition, and 25 years after Critical Path we are left with the same basic design for houses and automobiles and we still use fossil fuels instead of wind and solar energy.
After reading the book, I was both hopeful and disapointed. Fuller offers fascinating solutions to our world's problems. For example, if we were to build a geodesic dome over the downtown area of any city, we could cut the energy costs (heating and cooling) of all the buildings therein "eighty four fold." Further more, another dome built over the first will not only further increase the heating/cooling efficiency, a constant current of wind would be created from the temperature differential as the outer dome was heated by the sun, and the inner remained cool. This current could power all pneumatic tools within the dome. Furthermore... well, you get the idea. Fascinating.
The disappointing thing is, I don't have any idea how to, say, build my own Dymaxion house, or even where I might find a Dymaxion house to rent. I don't know any way to convince city leaders (who get many campaign contributions from the local utility company) to dome over downtown to reduce energy costs. And I can't think of any city that will demolish its own buildings to replace them with a new city designed to look like a moon crater - however wonderful that design actually is.
But I mentioned hope. The hopeful thing is, Bucky speaks the truth about our system. He is telling a new story, if you will.
In The Great Turning, Korten talks about the stories we tell ourselves about reality. One of the most damaging stories is the idea that there is not enough on this planet for everyone - not enough food, not enough fossil fuels, not enough money. Of course there is - grain rots in storage to keep prices up. Cars waste tons of gas - just think of all the cars, this instant, idling at stop lights. Fuel efficiency is actually slightly down in the US from 20 years ago - and the engines we use now, in the 21st century, are basically the same as the ones we used in 1940. We can do better than that.
The problem is, we are so busy telling ourselves that there's not enough to go around that we spend our time hoarding, maximizing profit, and going to war over resources rather than maximizing our efficiency.
Adding to the problems created by our perception of scarcity is our monetary system. Much (most?) of the wealth in the US and world economy is not real at all. Our money is a symbolic construct, worth only what we say it is worth. Further, the interest wealth that we collect in our savings accounts, or that we give away through debt, is even less real - just a number.
When you put your wealth in the bank, it goes immediately out as a loan to someone else, at interest. The bank is making money off of your savings account - but that money is nothing but figures in a book or a computer. If everyone were to suddenly go to the bank and withdraw their savings at once, there would not be enough cash - all that "money" is out there collecting interest for the bank.
What is real about this money is the time we spend earning it, and this is a problem. We are spending our fixed wealth of allotted time in order to create money that doesn't exist for people who already have too much.
It seems to me that the answer is to change the way we look at wealth and the world's resources. If we can just change the story...
*****
P.S. After reading this book, and looking over the past few posts, I've decided to institute a book ranking system based on how highly I recommend the book. I'll assign a value of 5 to "You must drop everything else, go out and get this book right now", and a value of 1 to "If you see this book, turn around and walk quickly the other way. Put it out of your mind if possible."
On that scale, I'd give Critical Path a score of 3.5. It's pretty good for the most part, and it has valuable insight that can help us survive the coming decades, but the knowledge imparted might not be worth the time invested for most people.
I'll give The Great Turning a 3.5 as well.
P.P.S. In the last post, I was asked to name a book that made me sob. Quite frankly, I couldn't think of any book... I looked at all the books in the house, thought about all the books I've read lately, and couldn't come up with anything. Then I remembered that I'd cried the first time I read The Hobbit when I was eight years old, when Thorin Oakenshield died. So that's what I put down.
Today, in the middle of writing this post and taking care of household chores, I picked up Derrick Jensen's A Language Older Than Words. About two pages into the preface I was in tears.
Look for a review soon.
If you listen to James Lovelock, another prominent scientist, we've already passed the point of no return, and within 50 years the few tattered remnants of humanity will be sailing around the seas that used to be the north polar ice cap.
Others say that technology will solve all our problems, and environmentalist hand wringing will only slow the inevitable technological paradise on earth.
Buckminster Fuller, writing in 1970 (Utopia or Oblivion), said that the world would witness a revolution in education, and in by 1980 the traditional classroom would be a thing of the past. In 1980 (Critical Path), he predicted that the world would have to undergo fundamental change by 1990 or humanity would face extinction by 2000.
Who do we listen to?
First, a few words about climate predictions. When James Hansen says that we have ten years to take action, he doesn't mean that we will all be dead in 10 years if we don't. Rather, he means that climate related catastrophes will increase, year by year, until we face disaster.
CO2 emissions have increased every year at a predictable rate. Looking at past growth rates of emissions, if we assume business as usual, we can calculate with reasonable certainty how much CO2 we will be emitting annually by 2016, and how much CO2 we will have pumped into the atmosphere between 2006 and 2016.
We can also calculate what effect that increased CO2 will have on the climate. These calculations are already good enough for government work - we know that temperature has increased and will continue to increase as we put more CO2 into the air. These predictions will become increasingly accurate as we get more data from ice cores, tree rings, ocean sediment, and other temperature records.
There's one more thing to consider, however: feedbacks. As we look back through historical temperature reconstructions, over the past couple million years, we see that CO2 has lagged behind rising temperatures. That is, temperature rises for one reason or another (increases in the Sun's brightness, perhaps, or variations in the earth's orbit) and shortly thereafter, CO2 levels begin to rise. It seems likely that higher temperatures activate processes that release more CO2 into the atmosphere. A prime example would be rotting vegetation in formerly frozen areas like Siberia. Suddenly, all the CO2 and methane and other gases that were frozen in place will flood the atmosphere, and the greenhouse effect will intensify. Another example is methane bubbling up from the ocean floor - trapped at certain temperatures, it is released when the temperature rises. I've talked about it before, so I imagine you have the idea.
The question is, where are we on that feedback curve? There is a point at which nothing we do will stop climate change. Once we pass that point, even if we switch entirely to clean technology, we will not be able to stop methane bubbling up from the ocean floor, or arctic ice melting. (Or maybe we will be... perhaps giant orbiting sun shades could refreeze the permafrost, or clouds of sulfur could darken the skies enough to drop the temperature and cool the oceans. I don't know.)
Lovelock believes we are past the point of no return. Hansen believes we are almost there. The guys (Competitive Enterprise Institute, Tim Ball, High Park Group, Richard Lindzen) who tell you there's nothing to worry about... well, they're remarkably optimistic (as well as on the payroll of ExxonMobile).
But what about Bucky Fuller?
Despite the missed predictions I cited above (although perhaps the second one is merely a few years off), R. Buckminster Fuller has a lot to offer our society.
For more than fifty years, Fuller dedicated himself entirely to the betterment of all humanity. He might be best known as the man who coined the term "spaceship earth," or perhaps as the inventor of the geodesic dome.
Fuller determined, and stated repeatedly, that there is enough wealth on the planet to sustain all humans at the level of billionaires. He was a prolific schemer and inventor, and developed plans by which all humanity would have power, modern plumbing, shelter, and abundant food. He believed it was possible to give every human (4 billion at the time he wrote Critical Path) 400,000 dollars daily to use as they wished. He believed (and it's only logical) that if all humans had their rightful share of the earth's wealth, there would be no more war and crime. Humans would, instead of struggling to survive, do the things they loved and were best at, and this would free the tremendous creative potential of all humanity.
In Critical Path, Fuller offers a history of humanity up to the present day. In fact, Critical Path is a lot like The Great Turning. There's an explanation of human history (some of it's a little out there) and an explanation of what went wrong. Whatever quibbles I might have with his speculative prehistory (his ideas about human evolution, for example), his history of the twentieth century is highly illuminating. He was born in 1895 and was a US naval officer during World War I, so he was well placed to comment on US history during the whole twentieth century.
Fuller also offers a solution to the problems of humanity - a "design science revolution." Sadly, his biggest ideas never came to fruition, and 25 years after Critical Path we are left with the same basic design for houses and automobiles and we still use fossil fuels instead of wind and solar energy.
After reading the book, I was both hopeful and disapointed. Fuller offers fascinating solutions to our world's problems. For example, if we were to build a geodesic dome over the downtown area of any city, we could cut the energy costs (heating and cooling) of all the buildings therein "eighty four fold." Further more, another dome built over the first will not only further increase the heating/cooling efficiency, a constant current of wind would be created from the temperature differential as the outer dome was heated by the sun, and the inner remained cool. This current could power all pneumatic tools within the dome. Furthermore... well, you get the idea. Fascinating.
The disappointing thing is, I don't have any idea how to, say, build my own Dymaxion house, or even where I might find a Dymaxion house to rent. I don't know any way to convince city leaders (who get many campaign contributions from the local utility company) to dome over downtown to reduce energy costs. And I can't think of any city that will demolish its own buildings to replace them with a new city designed to look like a moon crater - however wonderful that design actually is.
But I mentioned hope. The hopeful thing is, Bucky speaks the truth about our system. He is telling a new story, if you will.
In The Great Turning, Korten talks about the stories we tell ourselves about reality. One of the most damaging stories is the idea that there is not enough on this planet for everyone - not enough food, not enough fossil fuels, not enough money. Of course there is - grain rots in storage to keep prices up. Cars waste tons of gas - just think of all the cars, this instant, idling at stop lights. Fuel efficiency is actually slightly down in the US from 20 years ago - and the engines we use now, in the 21st century, are basically the same as the ones we used in 1940. We can do better than that.
The problem is, we are so busy telling ourselves that there's not enough to go around that we spend our time hoarding, maximizing profit, and going to war over resources rather than maximizing our efficiency.
Adding to the problems created by our perception of scarcity is our monetary system. Much (most?) of the wealth in the US and world economy is not real at all. Our money is a symbolic construct, worth only what we say it is worth. Further, the interest wealth that we collect in our savings accounts, or that we give away through debt, is even less real - just a number.
When you put your wealth in the bank, it goes immediately out as a loan to someone else, at interest. The bank is making money off of your savings account - but that money is nothing but figures in a book or a computer. If everyone were to suddenly go to the bank and withdraw their savings at once, there would not be enough cash - all that "money" is out there collecting interest for the bank.
What is real about this money is the time we spend earning it, and this is a problem. We are spending our fixed wealth of allotted time in order to create money that doesn't exist for people who already have too much.
It seems to me that the answer is to change the way we look at wealth and the world's resources. If we can just change the story...
*****
P.S. After reading this book, and looking over the past few posts, I've decided to institute a book ranking system based on how highly I recommend the book. I'll assign a value of 5 to "You must drop everything else, go out and get this book right now", and a value of 1 to "If you see this book, turn around and walk quickly the other way. Put it out of your mind if possible."
On that scale, I'd give Critical Path a score of 3.5. It's pretty good for the most part, and it has valuable insight that can help us survive the coming decades, but the knowledge imparted might not be worth the time invested for most people.
I'll give The Great Turning a 3.5 as well.
P.P.S. In the last post, I was asked to name a book that made me sob. Quite frankly, I couldn't think of any book... I looked at all the books in the house, thought about all the books I've read lately, and couldn't come up with anything. Then I remembered that I'd cried the first time I read The Hobbit when I was eight years old, when Thorin Oakenshield died. So that's what I put down.
Today, in the middle of writing this post and taking care of household chores, I picked up Derrick Jensen's A Language Older Than Words. About two pages into the preface I was in tears.
Look for a review soon.
posted by Will at 2:48 PM
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1 Comments:
hi, great article! I will try to look for that book and read it for myself. But you have made a great synopsis (of sorts).
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