You can't predict the weather tomorrow. How can you predict it 100 years in advance?

When I was in high school in the late 80's, I remember reading about the theory of global warming. Starting in the late 60's, scientists had noticed a correlation between increasing CO2 in the atmosphere and increasing global temperatures. They put two and two together, and predicted that as CO2 emissions rose, global temperatures would rise as well.

Now, twenty years after I first heard about global warming, the predictions are coming true. Temperatures are getting warmer - 2006 looks like it might turn out to be the hottest year on record. Temperatures have been trending upwards for the past century.

Imagine an amazing coincidence with me.

40 years ago, scientists predict that increased CO2 will increase global temperature. They base this prediction on the scientifically reproducible predictions of the greenhouse effect. Since then, we've seen a marked increase in CO2 and a marked increase in global temperature.

Now here's the amazing coincidence that global warming deniers want you to believe: the predicted increase in temperature is due to something that we did not predict 40 years ago, something like changes in the sun's radiation, or natural cycles of warming and cooling.

Think about that. What are the odds that some "unknown factor" would increase global temperatures to an unprecedented level, right at the same time that CO2 emissions increased to an unprecedented level - and right at the same time that scientists predicted increased temperatures because of CO2?

Isn't that amazing?

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• globalwarming